CCMM-AV — AVIATION APPROACH RISK ASSESSMENT

CCMM-AV | GABEY CONSULTING PTY LTD | APRIL 2026

CCMM Aviation
Approach Risk Assessment

Standard meteorological services correctly identified Tropical Cyclone Vaianu. The gap CCMM addresses is the next layer: converting that data into a structured, probability-assigned pre-departure recommendation before the aircraft leaves the gate. The FJ914 case demonstrates that gap precisely.

Case Fiji Airways FJ914 — 7 April 2026

Threat TC Vaianu — 255km WSW Nadi

Aircraft Boeing 737-800

Outcome 3 failed approaches — 80 pax diverted

CCMM Lead Time 24 hours pre-departure

3Failed Approach Attempts

79%CCMM Composite Risk (T-24hr)

48.9 KTPeak Gust Crosswind (Limit 33KT)

24 HRCCMM Warning Lead Time

3 / 3Other Operators Cancelled

CCMM-AV — AVIATION APPROACH RISK — RETROSPECTIVE DEMONSTRATION

What CCMM would have told Fiji Airways FJ914 — 24 hours before departure

7 April 2026. FJ914 Sydney–Nadi attempted three landings in conditions generated by Tropical Cyclone Vaianu. 80 passengers diverted to Tonga. Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin Australia cancelled on the same met data. CCMM converts meteorological output into a structured pre-departure cancellation recommendation.

FLIGHTFJ914 SYD–NAN

DATE7 APR 2026

AIRCRAFTB737-800

THREATTC VAIANU — 255KM WSW

ATTEMPTS3 FAILED — DIVERT TONGA

PAX AFFECTED80 PASSENGERS

T-24HR: INITIAL ASSESSMENT

SIGNALS CONVERGING

THRESHOLD CROSSED

CCMM: CANCEL RECOMMENDED

ACTUAL: 3 ATTEMPTS — DIVERT

CCMM-AV | SOUTH PACIFIC APPROACH CORRIDOR | NAN RWY 02

LIVE APPROACH RISK VISUALISATION

PFD — PRIMARY FLIGHT DISPLAY — FJ914STANDBY

THRAPP

ROLLLOC

PITCHG/S

140

RA
---

1500

HDG 020
                      

CCMM SIGNAL CONVERGENCE — T-24HR

TC Track / Nadi Corridor---

[OF] BOM Advisory

Approach Wind Shear---

[OF] Fiji Met SIGMET

Crosswind Exceedance Prob.---

[CC] Multi-model NWP

Historical Analog (HAC)---

[AA] CCMM HAC analysis

CCMM COMPOSITE RISK

60% = CANCEL RECOMMENDED THRESHOLD

⚠ CANCEL RECOMMENDED

CCMM approach risk composite exceeds cancellation threshold. Departure not recommended.

CCMM output is a probability-based recommendation. Decision authority remains with airline operations and pilot-in-command.

OPERATORS ON SAME DATA

✓Qantas — CANCELLED
                      
✓Jetstar — CANCELLED
                      
✓Virgin Australia — CANCELLED
                      
✗Fiji Airways — DEPARTED
                      
CCMM formalises what 3 operators assessed intuitively.

APPROACH ATTEMPT RECORD — FJ914 NAN RWY 02 — 7 APR 2026 [OF] BOM / ABC / RNZ

ATTEMPT 1 — WIND 052° / 48KT G68KT

Crosswind25.4 KT

Drift angle10.3°

Gust factor1.42

CL deviation280m

GO-AROUND — WIND SHEAR SHORT FINAL

ATTEMPT 2 — WIND 055° / 53KT G72KT

Crosswind30.4 KT

Drift angle12.3°

Gust factor1.36

CL deviation410m

GO-AROUND — XWIND AT OPERATIONAL LIMIT

ATTEMPT 3 — WIND 060° / 57KT G76KT

Crosswind36.6 KT

Drift angle14.7°

Gust XWIND48.9 KT > 33 LIM

CL deviation590m

ABORT — XWIND LIMIT EXCEEDED — DIVERT

CCMM T-24HR ASSESSMENT

Composite risk79%

Threshold60%

Gust XWIND (T-24)32.5 KT — 98% LIM

Lead time24 HOURS

CANCEL RECOMMENDED — BEFORE DEPARTURE

CROSSWIND COMPONENTV_xw = V_wind × sin(θ)--- KTθ = wind angle to RWY 020°

HEADWIND COMPONENTV_hw = V_wind × cos(θ)--- KTReduces approach speed required

DRIFT / CRAB ANGLEα = arctan(V_xw / V_ref)---°V_ref = 140KT (B737-800)

TRACK vs RUNWAYHDG = RWY_HDG + α020° + ---°Aircraft heading with full crab

GUST WIND SHEARG = V_gust / V_mean--->1.4 = severe wind shear

CENTRELINE DEVIATIOND = V_xw(ms) × t_final(s)--- mUncorrected on 3nm final (120s)

METHODOLOGY DEMONSTRATION ONLY. | Flight FJ914 incident: [OF] ABC News AU / RNZ / Fiji Airways statement, 7-8 April 2026. | Met data: [OF] BOM TC Vaianu advisory / Fiji Meteorological Service SIGMET. | Physics calculations use published aviation crosswind/drift formulas (public domain). | CCMM composite scoring methodology, Gate A values and signal weights are proprietary GABEY Consulting Pty Ltd IP and are not exposed in this interface. | CCMM output is a probability-based recommendation. Decision authority remains with the airline operations centre and pilot-in-command.

WORKING PAPER | GABEY-WP-2026-06CCMM-AV: Pre-Departure Aviation Approach Risk AssessmentRetrospective Application to Fiji Airways FJ914 and Tropical Cyclone Vaianu (April 2026). A structured demonstration that CCMM converts meteorological service output into a probability-assigned cancellation recommendation — the analytical layer between met service and operational decision that currently does not exist in formal, structured form.

CCMM-AV● Submission PendingWorking PaperRetrospective Case StudyOpen Source Data▪ OpenAIRE Indexed

▶ CCMM Parent Framework (SSRN 6364078) SSRN Pending Submission Zenodo Pending DOI

▶ SSRN Abstract 6566478 Zenodo DOI OpenAIRE Record

▶ SSRN Abstract 6364078 Zenodo DOI OpenAIRE Record

DOCUMENT INTEGRITY SHA-256: [To be generated at publication] | Document: CCMM-AV v1.0 | GABEY Consulting Pty Ltd (ACN 121 511 055)

FIVE CCMM-AV FINDINGS — FJ914 CASE

1

Pre-departure conditional probabilityCCMM composite risk 79% at T-24hr — above 60% cancellation threshold before FJ914 departed Sydney.

2

Crosswind exceedance predictionGust crosswind at 98% of B737-800 limit at T-24hr, rising to 148% (48.9kt) during actual operations.

3

Operator decision consistencyThree of four operators cancelled on identical met data. CCMM formalises what the three did intuitively.

4

The missing analytical layerBOM and Fiji Met correctly issued warnings. The gap was the absent structured probability layer between met output and go/no-go decision.

5

Decision authority preservedCCMM issues a probability-based recommendation. Operational authority remains with the airline and pilot-in-command.

CCMM Aviation Approach Risk Assessment

CCMM Aviation
Approach Risk Assessment